In the complex operation of financial markets, multiple factors are intertwined and affect the trend of currency exchange rates. On November 21st, the United States showed a trend of positive real estate sales data and a rebound in market hedging demand, which had a significant impact on the US dollar exchange rate. Many related details are worth further analysis.

1、 The overall trend of the US dollar index and exchange rate

On that day, the US dollar showed different trends against different currencies, which in turn affected the performance of the US dollar index. The US dollar index showed a narrow consolidation state in the overnight market and early morning of the day, then quickly rose in the morning of the day, and then entered a narrow consolidation stage. By the end of the day, the US dollar index had significantly risen. After a day of fluctuations, the US dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.27% on that day and ultimately closed at 106.97 in the foreign exchange market.

2、 US real estate sales and their impact on the US dollar

The data released by the American Association of Real Estate Agents this morning brought important information to the market. Data shows that the annual sales rate of existing homes in the United States reached 3.96 million units in October, which is higher than the market expectation of 3.9 million units and also higher than the revised 3.83 million units in September. The good performance of real estate sales has become one of the factors driving the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate on that day, enhancing market confidence in the US dollar and thus affecting the exchange rate trend of the US dollar against other currencies to a certain extent.

3、 Analysts' views on short selling the US dollar

Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at online brokerage firm Jiasheng Group, has provided insights into the current market situation. Given that investors are increasingly considering the possibility that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates at its December meeting, Simpson believes that it is quite difficult to short the US dollar in the current situation. This viewpoint indirectly reflects that the market's expectations for the US dollar are relatively stable, and investors are more cautious when making decisions.

4、 The Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on Currency Exchange Rate

（1） The impact on the Euro

The situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had an obvious impact on the euro exchange rate. Simpson pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which further weakened the market's confidence in the euro. Moreover, the prospect of the United States imposing trade tariffs has put the Euro, which is sensitive to the trade situation, in a negative position. The combination of multiple unfavorable factors led to a decline in the euro to dollar exchange rate on that day. As of the end of the New York currency market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.0484 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.0539 US dollars.

（2） The impact on the Japanese yen

Monex US, a foreign exchange broker, revealed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the yen exchange rate in the morning of the 21st. After Ukraine launched long-range missiles produced by the West into Russian territory, the market began to believe that there were more practical risks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although this concern has largely been reflected in the support for the US dollar, if this concern comes true, there is still room for further appreciation in other safe haven currencies.

The performance of the Japanese yen has been particularly outstanding this week, continuing to show extreme volatility. In the morning of that day, the Japanese yen strengthened by nearly 1% against the US dollar. Geopolitical risks have long been the main driving factor for the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate, and this week is no exception. The latest escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought strong risk aversion support to the yen. At the same time, Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, intensified the strength of the yen with his strong voice on the recent decline of the yen in Europe on the 21st. Moreover, Kazuo Ueda stated that the Japanese government is closely monitoring the impact of the yen exchange rate on the economy and inflation. This move injects new uncertainty into the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting in December, further affecting the trend of the yen exchange rate.

5、 Exchange rates of major currencies against the US dollar at the end of the New York currency market

As of the end of the New York currency market, the exchange rates of major currencies against the US dollar have shown varying degrees of change. In addition to the exchange rate fluctuations of the Euro and Japanese Yen mentioned above, the exchange rate of 1 pound to 1.2602 US dollars is lower than the previous trading day's 1.2647 US dollars; 1 US dollar is exchanged for 0.8863 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.8844 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar is exchanged for 1.3964 Canadian dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.3984 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar is exchanged for 11.0508 Swedish kronor, higher than the previous trading day's 11.0327 Swedish kronor. These exchange rate changes reflect the combined effects of various factors such as the global economic situation and geopolitics on the day.