The US real estate market has recently shown a complex trend, with an increase in current home sales in October and a rise in mortgage rates to higher levels. This situation has sparked many discussions on market trends, such as whether the growth of existing home sales can be sustained, and where future mortgage interest rates will go. Many industry insiders have also provided their own insights and analyses based on this, which will be elaborated in detail below.

1、 Current situation of current house sales and mortgage interest rates

（1） Real estate sales growth

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), current home sales in the United States showed a positive growth trend in October, with a month on month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. This is the first time since July 2021 that year-on-year growth has been achieved, bringing a touch of warmth to the market and igniting people's expectations for market recovery.

（2） Mortgage interest rates rise

However, the situation of mortgage interest rates is not optimistic. According to data from Freddie Mac, the average interest rate for 30-year standard fixed mortgage loans in the United States has risen to 6.84%, reaching a new high in four months. High mortgage interest rates have brought enormous pressure to real estate transactions and raised doubts about whether the growth of existing home sales can be sustained. Is this the starting point of market recovery or a short-lived prosperity?

2、 The Evolution and Future Trends of Mortgage Interest Rates

（1） Fluctuations in the past three years

In the past three years, the average mortgage interest rate in the United States has fluctuated dramatically, with astonishing increases. On August 19, 2021, the average 30-year fixed interest rate was 2.86%, which had risen to 6.84% as of November 21. Especially after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, mortgage rates did not fall as expected, but continued to rise, forming a strong contrast with market expectations.

（2） Future trend prediction

Multiple parties have made predictions on the future trend of mortgage interest rates. Ansari, a foreign IQI group, pointed out that the interest rate of US housing loans closely followed the yield of 10-year treasury bond bonds, and the yield of treasury bond bonds recently soared to 4.41% from 3.62% on September 26. Redfin has raised its forecast for the average 30-year mortgage interest rate for 2025 to 6.8% after the US election, while institutions such as Moody's Analytics expect the rate to remain around 7% next year. Oxford Economic Research Institute believes that although the interest rate of treasury bond has stabilized, considering the risks of economic growth, interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve and Trump's government policy, the interest rate still has an upward risk. Chen Hongming from Washington D.C. predicts that mortgage interest rates may remain around 6% in the short term, and it is highly unlikely that they will return to the initial 2% level of the pandemic in the short term. Inflation concerns are causing investors to worry.

3、 Housing loan application volume and housing supply situation

（1） Changes in loan application volume

Despite the consecutive four week increase in mortgage interest rates, the number of home loan applications has shown an unexpected trend. Previously, it had been declining for two consecutive months, but in the week ending November 15th, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data, the number of mortgage applications increased by 1.7% compared to the previous week, indicating that although mortgage interest rates are high, there are still some consumers who have a demand for home loans and their willingness to buy a house has not been completely extinguished.

（2） Housing supply situation

The supply of housing increased in October, with a total of 1.37 million units for sale, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. However, it should be noted that the increase in supply is partly due to the extension of housing retention time and the increase in non listing numbers. The average stay time of properties in the market in October was 29 days, higher than the 28 days in September and the 23 days in October 2023. According to the sales speed, the available inventory is equivalent to 4.2 months of supply, which is slightly lower than the 4.3 months in September, but still far below the 6-month equilibrium level, and the overall supply is still relatively tight.

4、 Industry insiders' suggestions for the market and buyers

（1） Market trend analysis

Compass broker Becco Zou pointed out that sellers have postponed their listing plans due to uncertainty about market trends, and are expected to relist next spring as it is the peak season for home purchases. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yin believes that the worst period of housing sales may have passed, and the increase in inventory will bring more transactions, job opportunities, and economic growth, which will lead to an increase in housing demand. However, for first-time homebuyers, mortgage loans are important, and although interest rates are high, they are expected to stabilize.

（2） Buyer's purchasing advice

Industry insiders have also provided purchasing advice for buyers. Ansari believes that buyers should adapt to the new normal of high interest rates, and can buy a house first. If interest rates are lowered, they can then raise funds to reduce costs. Otherwise, when interest rates are lowered, a large number of buyers will flood in or push up housing prices. Chen Hongming suggests that buyers should not delay their purchase decision due to waiting for changes in interest rates. Self owned housing can be purchased as early as possible, while investment housing should consider the return on investment. Becco Zou observed that first-time homebuyers still tend to purchase properties, while homebuyers tend to wait and see. Additionally, homebuyers are more picky about location and school districts, and in some areas, good properties need to be obtained through competition.

The US real estate market is currently in a critical stage of development, with mortgage interest rates intertwined with current home sales trends, and loan application and supply volumes also changing. When making a purchase decision, buyers need to comprehensively consider market factors and their own situation, and the future trend of the market needs further observation and analysis.