The current situation and future trend of the US real estate market are discussed, pointing out that the inventory of US real estate is far below the 6-month equilibrium point, and the average housing price has repeatedly hit new highs (up 4.2% year-on-year in August, with even higher increases in some cities). The reasons for the continuous rise in housing prices and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are analyzed. At the same time, the complex impact of Trump's related ideas (such as urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, deporting illegal immigrants, raising tariffs, etc.) on the US real estate market after his election as president was explored, including possible inflation, housing construction difficulties, and different views and expectations from various parties in the market.

The development trend of the US real estate market has always been closely monitored, and many factors are intertwined to influence its direction. Currently, there is a situation where the inventory of real estate is far below the 6-month equilibrium point, while the average housing price continues to rise and repeatedly reaches new highs. There are various presentations and interpretations of relevant data and viewpoints from various parties.

1、 Current situation of the US real estate market

（1） Inventory and housing price situation

According to the latest information, the inventory of real estate in the United States is currently only 3 to 4 months of sales volume, which is far below the 6-month equilibrium point, indicating a relatively tight supply of real estate.

At the same time, the data on housing prices is also quite remarkable. According to the latest S&P Case Shiller Index released recently, the average housing price in the United States increased by 4.2% year-on-year in August, reaching a new historical high. Among them, the year-on-year increase in housing prices in New York, Las Vegas, and Chicago ranks among the top 20 cities covered by the index, reaching 8.1%, 7.3%, and 7.2% respectively. Other major cities such as Detroit, Los Angeles, San Diego, etc. have also shown varying degrees of rising housing prices, with different specific increases.

（2） Analysis of the reasons for the rise in housing prices

Chen Yuewu, Executive Partner of Golden Eagle Real Estate Investment Company in the United States, pointed out that the shortage of supply in the US real estate market is the fundamental reason for the continuous rise in housing prices. Major authoritative institutions in the United States have also made relevant estimates, with estimates from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showing a housing shortage of around 4 million units. This supply-demand imbalance is driving up housing prices.

2、 The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the real estate market

（1） Interest rate cuts and trends in mortgage interest rates

As the Federal Reserve begins its interest rate cut cycle, this measure has had a significant impact on the US housing market. The Federal Reserve significantly cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in September this year, officially beginning its interest rate cutting cycle. On November 7th, it cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points. Recent data shows that the inflation rate in the United States has dropped to 2.4%, basically meeting the Federal Reserve's target, and the labor market is rapidly cooling down.

In this context, mortgage interest rates have entered a downward trend. In mid September, the US mortgage interest rate dropped significantly from 7% to around 6.1%. Although it has rebounded to 6.79%, the downward trend has not changed. The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates by about 1 percentage point in 2025, with the final rate dropping to 3.75% to 4%. Industry insiders such as Chen Yuewu predict that by 2025, US mortgage rates will fall to the range of 5% to 6%.

（2） Positive impact on the real estate market

The downward trend in mortgage interest rates is a significant positive for the US housing market. With the continuous decline in mortgage interest rates, the demand for real estate will be greatly released, and it is expected that the rise in housing prices will accelerate again, with the growth rate expected to return to over 10% in the future.

3、 The impact of Trump's related ideas on the US real estate market

（1） Urge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and its possibility

Trump has repeatedly proposed in the 2025 US presidential election to urge the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates and to address the housing burden in the United States by promoting new home construction. US real estate tycoon and CEO of Cardon Capital, Gakadon, believes that Trump's return to the White House will lead to a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. He believes that there is a huge real estate problem in the United States, and only by exerting tremendous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates can it be alleviated. He also believes that Trump can achieve this, and even predicts a historic interest rate cut in the next 12 months, bringing US mortgage rates down to 4% or lower.

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has repeatedly stated his intention to maintain independence from the executive branch. Even if Trump wins the election, Powell stated at a press conference that if Trump demands his resignation, he will refuse because US law does not allow the president to dismiss the Federal Reserve chairman. Moreover, Professor Hu Jie pointed out that Powell's term will not expire until 2025, and the new president will not immediately affect the leadership of the Federal Reserve. In addition, the seven members of the Federal Reserve change every two years, and each change requires nomination by the president and approval by the Senate. The operation of the 12 local Federal Reserve banks is also completely independent of the president's jurisdiction, and the executive branch's ability to directly intervene in financial policies is quite limited.

（2） Other ideas and interference with the real estate market

Some of Trump's other ideas may disrupt the real estate market. On the one hand, his idea of significantly reducing taxes and raising tariffs may stimulate inflation. According to Professor Hu Jie's explanation, unless there are significant unexpected fluctuations in data such as inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, or unemployment rate in the United States, the Federal Reserve should steadily lower interest rates according to the established pace. If there are unexpected situations, the pace of interest rate cuts will be adjusted accordingly.

On the other hand, Trump has vowed to deport a large number of illegal immigrants. According to Chen Yuewu, as about one-third of the construction industry's labor force comes from illegal immigrants, this move may cause a significant loss of labor and lead to a shortage of labor in the construction industry. As workers decrease, wages may rise, which may then be passed on to homebuyers through rising housing prices. At the same time, Trump has vowed to significantly increase tariffs. Experts have stated that imposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on building materials such as wood may push up housing costs and the cost of home decoration materials. Any tariffs that increase product costs will directly affect consumers.

（3） The views and expectations of all parties in the market

There are different opinions and expectations in the market regarding the direction of the US real estate market after Trump's election. Chen Yuewu stated that the current market view is that with Trump's victory, Wall Street investors are beginning to bet on rising inflation and reduced interest rate cuts. In the short term, due to continued tight supply, housing prices may continue to rise, and fluctuations in mortgage interest rates are expected to make both buyers and sellers cautious. In the long run, the situation may become better or worse, depending on what Trump decides to prioritize after entering the White House.

The US real estate market is showing a complex development trend under the combined effects of inventory, housing prices, Federal Reserve policies, and Trump's related ideas. Its future trend still needs to be continuously monitored in order to accurately grasp market changes.